KLIMATSKE SPREMEMBE IN ZDRAVJE
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3RGQHEQH VSUHPHPEH ]DY]HPDMR SRPHPEQR PHVWR WDNR Y ]QDQRVWL NRW WXGL Y SROLWLNL JRVSRGDUVWYX LQ MDYQRVWL 5D]ORJ VR SULþDNRYDQH SRVOHGLFH SRGQHEQLK VSUHPHPE LQ WLVWH NL MLK åH RSDåDPR =DGQMH GHVHWOHWMH MH ELOR QDMWRSOHMãH RGNDU LPDPR PHWHRURORãNH PHULWYH LQ OHWR MH ELOR QD MWRSOHMãH GRVOHM >@ 3RGQHEQH VSUHPHPEH Y ]DGQMLK OHWLK SRVWDYOMDMR QRYH UHNRUGH SRYSUHþQD WHPSHUDWXUD VH MH GYLJQLOD VSUHPHQLOD SD VH MH WXGL UD]SRUHGLWHY SDGDYLQ /HGHQLNL OHGHQL SRNURYL LQ DUNWLþQL PRUVNL OHG VH NUþLMR YHOLNR KLWUHMH NRW MH ELOR SUYRWQR QDSRYHGDQR >@ 3RGQHEQH VSUH PHPEHVRVWUHVQLGHMDYQLNQHOH]DþORYHNDDPSDNWXGL]DHNRVLVWHPHVDM RJURåDMRQMLKRYRVWUXNWXURLQGHORYDQMHWHUVSRGNRSDYDMRQMLKRYRRGSRUQRVW SURWLGUXJLPSULWLVNRP>@2þLWQRGRVHGDQMLVYHWRYQLSROLWLþQLXNUHSLSURMHNWL WUDMQRVWQHJD UD]YRMD LQ ]PDQMãHYDQMH LQWHQ]LYQRVWL LQGXVWULMH QLVR SULQHVOL XNUHSRYEODåHQMD±WRUHMYLGQHMãLK]PDQMãHYDQML]SXVWRYWRSORJUHGQLKSOLQRY NLVRSRJODYLWQLUD]ORJ]DJOREDOQRRJUHYDQMH=DHQNUDWVRSRGQHEQHVSUH PHPEH SDþ QHORþOMLYR SRYH]DQH ] YHþDQMHP JOREDOQHJD GRKRGND QD SUHELYDOFDLQQDUDãþDQMHPVYHWRYQHJDSUHELYDOVWYD.HUUD]OLþQLGUXåEHQR JRVSRGDUVNLND]DOFLWXGLYSULKRGQMHSUHGYLGHYDMRSRPHPEQRYORJRþORYHND SULVSUHPHQOMLYRVWLSRGQHEMDERGRVSUHPHPEHSRGQHEMDPRþQRYSOLYDOHQD
þORYHãWYR .PHWLMVWYR MH L]UD]LWR RGYLVQR RG YUHPHQD HQDNR WXGL HQHUJH WLNDYRGQLYLULSDWXGLWXUL]HPSURPHWLQVHYHGDQDãHSRþXWMHLQ]GUDYMH 3RVOHGLFHJOREDOQHJDRJUHYDQMDERGRUD]QRYUVWQHQHNDWHUHWXGLSR]LWLYQH YHQGDUSDERGRYYHþLQLSULPHURY]DQDãH]GUDYMHQHJDWLYQH>@3ULKDMDþDV NR ER PRUDOR R JOREDOQLK VSUHPHPEDK Y RNROMX ãH ]ODVWL SD R SRGQHEQLK VSUHPHPEDK UD]PLãOMDWL WXGL ]GUDYVWYR *OREDOQH RNROMVNH VSUHPHPEH VR YHþSODVWQHLQVRQHGYRPQRJURåQMD]D]GUDYMHOMXGL=DPQRJHRGGDQDãQMLK RNROMVNLKL]]LYRYMH]QDþLOQDNRPSOHNVQRVWVDMMH]DQMHYHþY]URNRYLQYYHþ SRJOHGLKREVWDMDVRRGYLVQRVWPHGNOMXþQLPLSURFHVLLQGHMDYQLNLYQMLKRYHP R]DGMX WHU ] QMLPL SRYH]DQLPL XþLQNL 6OLND 7DQMãDQMH R]RQVNH SODVWL LQ SRVOHGLþQLXþLQNLQD ]GUDYMHVR ]QDQL åHGHVHWOHWMDSRGREQR ]QDQLVR WXGL QHJDWLYQLYSOLYLXUEDQL]DFLMHLQVSUHPHQMHQLKODVWQRVWLWDO0DQMSDVRMDVQH SRYH]DYHVSRGQHEQLPLVSUHPHPEDPL96ORYHQLMLVPRVHSULYSOLYLKSRG QHEMD QD ]GUDYMH OMXGL ]DHQNUDW VUHþHYDOL SUHGYVHP ] YURþLQVNLPL YDORYL REþDVQLP SRPDQMNDQMHP SLWQHYRGHQDQHNDWHULK REPRþMLKQHVUHþDPLRE YUHPHQVNLK XMPDK LQ ] EROH]QLPL NL MLK SUHQDãDMR NORSL LQ VR L]UD]LWR RG YLVQHRGSRGQHEQLKUD]PHU9SULKRGQRVWLSDERWHåDYYVHYHþ2PHQLPR QDMRWHåHQRSUHVNUERVSLWQRYRGRKUDQRYHþMRSRJRVWRVWMRSRSODYSRåDURY LQVXãWHUãLUMHQMHPQHNDWHULKEROH]QLQDQRYDREPRþMD
6OLND*OREDOQHVSUHPHPEHQDQDãHPSODQHWXRJURåDMRQDãH]GUDYMH
KAKŠNI BODO VPLIVI PODNEBNIH SPREMEMB V EVROPI?
Tudi ko bi se izpusti toplogrednih plinov danes ustavili, se bodo podnebne spremembe nadaljevale še veliko desetletij zaradi preteklih izpustov in inercije podnebnega sistema [4]. Poleg segrevanja se bo spremenili tudi YRGQL NURJ LQ KLGURORãNH UD]PHUH YLGHQ MH åH PDQMãL SUHWRN UHN Y MXåQL LQ Y]KRGQL (YURSL LQ YHþML GUXJRG 1D YRGQH HNRVLVWHPH YSOLYDMR WXGL YHþMD SRJRVWRVWLQLQWHQ]LYQRVWVXããH]ODVWLYMXåQL(YURSLWHUYLãMHWHPSHUDWXUH vode. Podnebne spremembe so prizadele evropska morja z zakisanjem in dvigovanjem temperatur morske vode. Tudi obale so ranljive, izpostavljene VRGYLJDQMXPRUVNHJODGLQHHUR]LMLLQPRþQHMãLPYLKDUMHP
.RSHQVNLHNRVLVWHPLGRåLYOMDMRIHQRORãNHVSUHPHPEHLQVSUHPHPEHYUD]
poreditvi, izpostavljeni pa so tudi širjenju invazivnih tujerodnih vrst. Vplivi na NPHWLMVWYRVHNDåHMRYVSUHPHQMHQLKIHQRORãNLKUD]PHUDK]DSROMãþLQHVSUH PHQMHQHPREVHJXLQUD]SRUHGLWYL]HPOMLãþSULPHUQLK]DNPHWLMVNRSULGHODYR VSUHPHQMHQLK GRQRVLK WHU YHþML SRWUHEL SR YRGL ]D QDPDNDQMH Y MXåQL LQ jugozahodni Evropi. Tudi gozdovi so prizadeti zaradi spremenjenih vzorcev pojavljanja in intenzivnosti viharjev, škodljivcev, bolezni, suš in gozdnih SRåDURY >@ 1DMYHþMH VSUHPHPEH LQ ]DWR WXGL YSOLYH Y (YURSL GRåLYOMDMR Y 6UHGR]HPOMXLQYJRUVNLKREPRþMLK7DPåHSULKDMDGRRNUQMHQHJDRSUDYOMDQMD ekosistemskih storitev in do upadanja biotske raznovrstnosti. Sredozemska UHJLMD SULþDNXMH GYLJ WHPSHUDWXUH NL SUHVHJD HYURSVNR SRYSUHþMH PDQMãR NROLþLQROHWQLKSDGDYLQPDQMãLOHWQLSUHWRNUHNLQYVHYHþMRQHYDUQRVWãLUMH QMD SXãþDYVNLK UD]PHU 6UHGR]HPOMH ER SUL]DGHWR WXGL ]DUDGL YVH YHþMH SRWUHEHSR YRGLYNPHWLMVWYXPDQMãHJDNPHWLMVNHJDSULGHONDYHþMHQHYDU QRVWL JR]GQLK SRåDURY YHþMH XPUOMLYRVWL ]DUDGL YURþLQVNLK YDORY LQ ]DUDGL PDQMãHJDSROHWQHJDWXUL]PD*RUVNDREPRþMDþDNDSROHJL]UD]LWHJDGYLJD WHPSHUDWXUWXGLNUþHQMHOHGHQLNRYLQJRUVNLKREPRþLMVWUDMQR]DPU]QMHQLPL WOHPLSUHPLNUDVWOLQVNLKLQåLYDOVNLKYUVWYYLãMHOHJHYHOLNDQHYDUQRVWL]XPUWMD YUVWYDOSVNLKUHJLMDKYVHYHþMDQHYDUQRVWHUR]LMHWDOLQPDQMVPXþDUVNHJD turizma.
V srednji in vzhodni Evropi bodo podnebno prihodnost najbolj zaznamovale SRJRVWHMãH L]MHPQR YLVRNH WHPSHUDWXUH PDQMãD NROLþLQD SROHWQLK SDGDYLQ YLãMDWHPSHUDWXUDYRGHYHþMDQHYDUQRVWJR]GQLKSRåDURYLQPDQMãDJRVSR GDUVNDYUHGQRVWJR]GRY.HUSDSUHGYLGHQLGYLJWHPSHUDWXUHGRNRQFD stoletja presega variabilnost temperature v obdobju, odkar imamo meritve meteoroloških spremenljivk, bodo podnebne razmere marsikje verjetno dosegle tudi stanja, ki si jih na osnovi poznavanja preteklosti ne moremo predstavljati. Scenariji prihodnjega podnebja za Slovenijo so dokaj negotovi, DYSULKRGQMLKOHWLKODKNR]YHOLNRJRWRYRVWMRSULþDNXMHPRGYLJSRYSUHþQH OHWQHWHPSHUDWXUH]UDND]DGR&.ROLþLQDSDGDYLQYWRSOLSRORYLFLOHWD VHERQDMYHUMHWQHMH]PDQMãDODYSRYSUHþMX]DGRSHWLQRY]LPVNHPþDVXSD JUHSULþDNRYDWLGRNDMQHVSUHPHQMHQRNROLþLQRSDGDYLQ
1HGYRPQR MH Y SULKRGQMH SULþDNRYDWL PRþQHMãH LQ ãWHYLOQHMãH YSOLYH SRG QHEQLKVSUHPHPENRWMLKREþXWLPRåHGDQHVýHSUDYMHEODåHQMHSRGQHEQLK VSUHPHPENOMXþQHJDSRPHQDVHMHWUHEDWXGLSULODJRGLWLSRGQHEQLPVSUH PHPEDP NL VPR MLP åH L]SRVWDYOMHQL LQ YHUMHWQLP SULKRGQMLP SRGQHEQLP VFHQDULMHP *ODYQL QDPHQ SULODJDMDQMD MH ]DJRWRYLWL GD EL ELOR NOMXE VSUH PLQMDQMX UD]PHU ãH QDSUHM ]DJRWRYOMHQR GHORYDQMH QDãH NXOWXUH GUXåEH JRVSRGDUVWYDWHUJUDMHQHLQIUDVWUXNWXUHLQQDUDYQHJDRNROMD>@
02ä1,93/,9,1$='5$9-(,132ý87-(/-8',
2E SRGQHEQLK VSUHPHPEDK ODKNR SULþDNXMHPR WDNR QHSRVUHGQH NRW WXGL SRVUHGQH YSOLYH QD ]GUDYMH LQ SRþXWMH OMXGL >@ /DåMH MH RFHQLWL SRVOHGLFH QHSRVUHGQLK YSOLYRY QSU YHþMH ãWHYLOR WHåDY LQ WXGL VPUWL RE YURþLQVNLK YDOLK 9HOLNR WHåMH MH RFHQLWL SRVUHGQH YSOLYH SUHN SRUXãHQHJD UDYQRYHVMD HNRVLVWHPRY VSUHPHPE Y SUHKUDQL ]DUDGL VSUHPHPE Y NPHWLMVNL SULGHODYL LQ EROH]QL UDVWOLQ SRUD]GHOLWYL ]DMHGDYFHY LQ ãNRGOMLYFHY YHþML RQHVQDåH QRVWLRNROMDLSG6OLND1HSR]DELPRGDVHERY]SRUHGQRVSRGQHEQLPL VSUHPHPEDPLYHþDODWXGLVWRSQMDXUEDQL]DFLMHVSUHPLQMDOVHERåLYOMHQMVNL VWDQGDUGSUHELYDOFHYYHþMLERGRPLJUDFLMVNLWRNRYL.RQþQLYSOLYQD]GUDYMH SD ER WXGL RGYLVHQ RG WHJD NDNãHQ ER GUXåEHQL LQ JRVSRGDUVNL RG]LY QD SRGQHEQHVSUHPHPEH
6OLND1HSRVUHGQLLQSRVUHGQLXþLQNLSRGQHEQLKVSUHPHPEQD]GUDYMH
9JOREDOQHPPHULOXMHGRNDMSUHSURVWRQDãWHWLPRåQHSRVOHGLFHSRGQHEQLK VSUHPHPE]D]GUDYMHOMXGL9LãMDWHPSHUDWXUDERRPRJRþLODãLUMHQMHWURSVNLK EROH]QL WXGL ]XQDM HNYDWRULDOQHJD REPRþMD äH VHGDM PDUVLNMH QH]DGRVWQH YRGQH]DORJHERGRãHEROMRJURåHQHLQSRQHNRGERYRGHSULPDQMNRYDORãH SRVHEQR SLWQH =DUDGL GYLJD PRUVNH JODGLQH ER VODQD PRUVND YRGD ODKNR YGUODY SRGWDOQLFR 3RJRVWHMãLLQPRþQHMãLYURþLQVNLYDOL ERGRYYHOHPHVWLK ]DKWHYDOL YHþ åLYOMHQM QHXUMD ERGR RJURåDOD ODVWQLQR ]GUDYMH LQ åLYOMHQMH SRJRVWHMH NRW GDQHV 9HOLNR WHåMH MH SUHGYLGHWL SRVOHGLFH QD UHJLRQDOQL LQ lokalni ravni [6].
*OHGHYSOLYRYQD]GUDYMHLQSRþXWMHOMXGLXSRãWHYDPRUD]OLþQHYLGLNHSRGQHE QLKVSUHPHPE=DUDGLQMLKVHERGRVSUHPHQLOHWRSORWQHUD]PHUHSDGDYLQVNL UHåLPLQWHQ]LWHWDLQSRJRVWRVWHNVWUHPQLKYUHPHQVNLKGRJRGNRYSRJRVWRVW LQUD]SRUHGLWHYYUHPHQVNLKVLQRSWLþQLKVLWXDFLMQDG6UHGR]HPOMHPLQVUHGQMR (YURSR YLãLQD JODGLQH PRUMD 3RGQHEQH VSUHPHPEH XWHJQHMR SRVUHGQR YSOLYDWLWXGLQDR]RQVNLSODãþYVWUDWRVIHULLQSRVOHGLþQRMDNRVW89VHYDQMD in pa na slabšanje kakovosti zraka (Tabela 1). V nadaljevanju preglejmo QDMYHUMHWQHMãHSRVOHGLFHSRGQHEQLKVSUHPHPE]D]GUDYMHY6ORYHQLML 3UL YURþLQVNLK YDORYLK SD QH JUH OH ]D ]YHþDQR XPUOMLYRVW WHPYHþ WXGL ]D SRVODEãDQMH EROH]HQVNLK VLPSWRPRY PRþQR ]PDQMãDMR GHORYQR VWRULOQRVW YHþMRYHUMHWQRVWQHVUHþSULGHOXLQYSURPHWXWHUPDQMãRNDNRYRVWåLYOMHQMD
>@=DSUWHSURVWRUHMHVLFHUPRJRþHKODGLWLYHQGDUMHSUDYKODMHQMHHQHUJLM VNR ]HOR SRWUDWQR NROLþLQD VSURãþHQH WRSORWH Y PHVWLK SD EL VH V WHP ãH GRGDWQR ]YHþDOD 9HþMD XSRUDED NOLPDWVNLK QDSUDY Y ]DSUWLK SURVWRULK MH ODKNRFHORGRGDWHQY]URN]GUDYVWYHQLKWHåDY9URþLQLELVHODKNRYVDMGHOR PDL]RJQLOL]L]ELURJUDGEHQLKPDWHULDORYUD]SRUHGLWYLMRLQRULHQWDFLMRVWDYE izbiro velikosti in razporeditve oken. Tudi zelenje in vodne površine v PHVWLKSULVSHYDMRNEROMãHPXSRþXWMXSUHELYDOFHY
.HUERGRQDãH]LPHYSULKRGQMHYSRYSUHþMXPLOHMãHELWRODKNR]PDQMãDOR XPUOMLYRVW]DUDGLPUD]D3ULSUHVRMLYSOLYRYPUD]DSDMHWUHEDXSRãWHYDWLWXGL YHWURYQH UD]PHUH LQ ODKNR VH ]JRGL GD EL VH NOMXE YLãML WHPSHUDWXUL ]UDND SRJRVWHMHSRMDYOMDOLSURGRULKODGQHJDLQVXKHJD]UDND=DUDGLPUD]DVRRJUR åHQDVNXSLQDEUH]GRPFLLQL]UD]LWRUHYQLVORMLSUHELYDOFHY1DYNOMXEYVHPX RFHQMXMHPRGDVHER]LPVNDXPUOMLYRVWYHQGDUOHQHNROLNR]PDQMãDOD
Kakovost zraka
'LP VDMH LQ ãNRGOMLYL SOLQL YNOMXþQR ] R]RQRP Y SUL]HPQL SODVWL R]UDþMD YSOLYDMR QD DVWPDWLNH LQ EROQLNH ] EROH]QLPL GLKDO ãH SRVHEQR PRþQR Y PHVWLK LQ RNROLFL LQGXVWULMVNLK YLURY RQHVQDåHQMD äH GDQGDQHV MH YHOLN SUREOHP SUHGYVHP SROHWQR RQHVQDåHQMH ]UDND JOREDOQR RJUHYDQMH SD ER problem še poglobilo.
7DEHOD1HNDWHULPRåQLYSOLYLSRGQHEQLKVSUHPHPEQD]GUDYMHLQ]GUDYVWYRY6ORYHQLML
3RGQHEQD
VSUHPHPED 9SOLY 3RVOHGLFH
Dvig poletne temperature QDVOHGQMLK GHVHWOHWMLK SUHM QDVSURWQR >@ =UDN ER ãH EROM RQHVQDåHQ ] RUJDQVNLPL VSRMLQDPL LQKDODELOQLPL GHOFL R]RQRP LQ GXãLNRYLPL RNVLGL (SLGHPLRORãNHUD]LVNDYHSRWUMXMHMRSRYH]DYHPHG]EROHYQRVWMRLQRQHVQD åHQLP]UDNRP2FHQMXMHPRGD ER REYHþMLSROHWQL YURþLQLWXGLREPRUHELWL
QHVSUHPHQMHQLKNRQFHQWUDFLMDKãNRGOMLYLKSOLQRYQMLKRYXþLQHNYHþMLNHUER WRSORWQDREUHPHQLWHYYHþMD
Drugi ekstremni vremenski pojavi
,]MHPQL YUHPHQVNL GRJRGNL ODKNR QHSRVUHGQR RJURåDMR åLYOMHQMH LQ ]GUDYMH OMXGLVVYRMRUXãLOQRPRþMRLQXQLþXMHMRLPHWMH6WHKQLþQLPUD]YRMHPSRVWD MDPR ãH EROM GRY]HWQL ]D QHYDUQH LQ ãNRGOMLYH SRVOHGLFH PRþQLK QDOLYRY SRSODYLQ]HPHOMVNLKSOD]RY/HWLERGRSRVWDOLLQWHQ]LYQHMãL]DWRERGRWXGL QMLKRYL QHJDWLYQL XþLQNL YHþML (NVWUHPQL YUHPHQVNL SRJRML RPHQLPR OH UXãLOQH YHWURYH LQ SRSODYH ODKNR XVWYDUMDMR SRJRMH ]D ãLUMHQMH UD]OLþQLK EROH]QL 9UHPHQVNH XMPH SRJRVWR XQLþLMR OHWLQR LQ RQHVQDåLMR SLWQR YRGR SRVOHGLFD SD MH ODKNR ãLUMHQMH EROH]QL 3RGREQH VR WXGL SRVOHGLFH KXGH VXãHUD]OLNDMHOHGDVHSRNDåHMRSRVWRSRPD(YURSDMHY]DGQMHPGHVHW OHWMXXWUSHODYHþNRWYHOLNLKSRSODYNLVRWHUMDOHYVDMVPUWLLQSUL]D GHOH åLYOMHQMD YVDM GYD LQ SRO PLOLMRQD OMXGL >@ 3ROHJ WUDJLþQLK VPUWL VR SULQHVOHWXGLSRãNRGEHEROH]QLLQGXãHYQHPRWQMHNLVHODKNRSRMDYLMRPHG XMPDPLDOLREQRYLWYHQLPLSURFHVL1HSRVUHGQHSRVOHGLFHSRSODYVRXWRSLWYH SRãNRGEHSRGKODGLWYHLQãLUMHQMHQDOH]OMLYHEROH]QLNRWVRGULVNHLQNROHUD
=GUDYMHOMXGLMHRJURåHQRWXGL]DUDGLVODEãLKELYDOQLKSRJRMHYSRSRSODYDK 6WUHVWHVQREDLQGHSUHVLMDVRELOLGYDNUDWSRJRVWHMãLSULSUHELYDOFLKSUL]D GHWLKYSRSODYDK
=DVWUXSLWYHRNXåEHLQDOHUJLMH
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